DROP SHOTS

Some kick serves and stab volleys from the week in tennis...

• At ESPN.com, Ravi Ubha charts the state of tennis turbulence in Power Rankings.

• Chris Chase plays twenty, er, five questions over at Busted Racquet.

• Mike Greenberg teams with Chris Evert and attempts to qualify for the U.S. Open.

• Peter Bodo dissects the super secret surface the U.S. wants to play Spain on in Davis Cup.

• Serena Williams displays a trio of drastically different looks.

Game.  Set.  Match.

WINDS OF CHANGE

Roger Federer is out of the Monte Carlo Masters.  Jurgen Melzer got him 6-4, 6-4 in the quarters on a windy day that kicked clay in the air and made playing conditions extremely difficult.  Melzer, seeded seventh in the tournament, now moves on to play fourth-seeded David Ferrer in the semis, while Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray square off in the other semifinal.

Despite the fact that Federer had never lost to Melzer before today, when I took a look at the draw yesterday I thought out of the four quarters, Melzer had the best shot at pulling off an upset.  I didn't know the Austrian would win, and probably wouldn't have picked him, but I thought he at least had a chance. In fact, I figured the other three matches would be relatively easy wins for the favorites -- Nadal over Ljubicic, Murray over Gil, and Ferrer over Troicki.  As it turned out, they were all straight-setters. It speaks volumes that I pegged Roger Federer, arguably the greatest men's tennis player in the history of the game, as the vulnerable one.  That's just the way it feels these days. When I saw him play in Miami a couple of weeks ago, the joy didn't seem to be there.  At his best, which was almost always, his play seemed effortless, as smooth as silk.  Now it looks like a chore.  I really do hope it's simply a bad patch and he'll rebound to challenge for more major titles.  But, taking into account his age (he'll be 30 in August), the absurd length of time he dominated the game, and the way he has fared recently against Rafa and Nole, it's getting harder and harder to ignore the reality that Roger Federer hit his peak and we're now witnessing the denoument of his monolithic career.

SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST

On the long-running television reality/game show, "Survivor", they lean heavily on the slogan, "Outwit.  Outplay.  Outlast."  In yesterday's epic clash on Key Biscayne, Novak Djokovic survived Rafael Nadal.  Over at Tennis World, Peter Bodo described the match as a bar room brawl.

Outwit:
Djokovic used the drop shot to exceptional effect in this match.  With Rafa's speed, no player is going to win too many points on clean drop shot winners.  But Djokovic used the dropper to draw Nadal into the net and set up passing shots.  When Djokovic decided to break the pattern of punishing groundstrokes, Nadal was unable to make him pay.  As Bodo points out, this match was not necessarily about tactics.  In the "outwit" category, Djokovic's use of the drop shot was the only clear advantage either player gained.

Outplay:
Throwing out a very shaky start from the Serb which saw Nadal storm to a 5-1 lead in the first set, Nadal seemed nearly incapable of hitting the ball by Djokovic.  Nadal usually finds angles that stretch the geometry of the court and take other players so far out of position they leave the court wide open for Nadal to rip winners.  Every long rally in this match seemed to go Djokovic's way.  And it visibly took its toll on Rafa, as he showed more frustration on the court than we're used to seeing.

The Spaniard also did not help his cause with his serve.  He certainly didn't have enough confidence to use the serve as a weapon, which he did in winning the U.S. Open last September.  Yesterday, his serve wasn't even good enough to gain him the advantage from point to point.  He was forced to work in every service game.  Six double faults in a match is way out of character for the steady serving Nadal.  His serve let him down when he needed it most in the tiebreaker.

Outlast:
I can't remember ever seeing Rafael Nadal more exhausted than his opponent.  Djokovic, who has had breathing issues in the past when the weather heated up, held strong during the humid Miami afternoon.  The heat, humidity, and tension of the three hour and twenty-one minute wore on Nadal.  When the match was on the line during the third set tiebreaker, Nadal earned a mini-break and served at 2-1.  Djokovic won yet another long rally and Nadal appeared spent.  He toweled off his entire body and took some extra extra time, but double faulted on the very next point.  Djokovic now served with a 3-2 lead and built it into a 6-2 lead.  Nadal fought off a couple of match points, but couldn't hold out any longer.  Djokovic ripped a winner to take the match and end the brutality.

Thus, Novak Djokovic, undoubtedly the hottest player on tour and the best on the hard courts, outwitted, outplayed, and outlasted the champion and beast that is Rafael Nadal.  The tribe may not have spoken, but the Serb certainly did.

IT'S ON

For the first time in 6 years on American soil (or at least the surface of a tennis court), Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will battle it out.

Yesterday morning, Gilles Simon woke up with a stiff neck.  Yesterday afternoon, Roger Federer moved through to the Sony Ericsson Open semis.  Simon tried to make a go of it, but after three woeful games, it was readily apparent he was in no condition to play tennis.  He retired from the match and handed Fed a very easy victory. 

Last night, Rafael Nadal come out on fire in his match with Tomas Berdych.  He smoked the ball all over the court and convincingly won the first set 6-2.  In the second set, his game went off the rails a bit, he got some treatment on his shoulder, and Berdych took control.  Berdych cruised to a 4-0 lead and won the set 6-3.  Berdych had an opportunity to break Nadal to open the third set, but Nadal found his serve and held on for a 1-0 lead.  The two continued to hold serve until 4-3, when Nadal secrured a break.  He served it out and set up a dream semifinal.

UPDATE: Novak Djokovic just defeated American Mardy Fish in straight sets, 6-3-, 6-1.  A 55-minute rain delay interrupted the action at 2-2 in the first.  Djokovic seemed rejuvenated by the break and grabbed the reins shortly after they returned to the court.  Mardy had a break opportunity with Djokovic serving for the set at 5-3, but bricked a volley on break point.  Djokovic held serve to take the set and cruised through the second set for the win.

So, Djokovic awaits the winner of tonight's clash between Rafa and Roger.  It will either be #1 versus #2, or #2 versus #3.  No matter what, it will be epic.  And I will be there, perched in my favorite spot in the top row.